Impact of the North Sea–Caspian pattern on meteorological drought and vegetation response over diverging environmental systems in western Eurasia

Emerging drought stress on vegetation over western Eurasia is linked to varying teleconnection patterns. The North Sea–Caspian Pattern (NCP) a relatively less studied Eurasian pattern, which has role conditions and the consequence of changing vegetation. Between 1981 2015, we found that Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Normalized Difference Vegetation (NDVI) have different trend patterns various parts Eurasia. Specifically, greenness with wetter Scandinavia, cover decreases drying central Asia. However, Russia Franceare paradoxically becoming greener under drier conditions. Using Budyko framework, such paradoxical are in energy-limited environmental systems, where growth primarily promoted by warmer temperatures. While most studies focused impacts Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), test whether NCP explains better variability meteorological response We hypothesised positive phases correlated high pressure anomalies Sea, can be associated weakening onshore moisture advection, leading dryness These driving greening, as mainly energy limited. show climate warming along impacts, future ecosystem will transferred from water-limited systems. This suggests observed greening past three decades unlikely sustain future.